📝 Content Placeholder — Replace with Your Introduction
Write a compelling 2–3 paragraph introduction here explaining what the 4% rule is and why it matters to readers who want to know how long their money will last.
Suggested angle: Hook readers with a relatable scenario (e.g., "You've worked 30 years. You have $500,000 saved. How much can you safely spend each month?").
What Is the 4% Rule?
📝 Section Placeholder: What Is the 4% Rule?
Explain the origin of the 4% rule (the 1994 Bengen study / Trinity Study). Cover: what the rule states, how it's calculated, and what "30-year horizon" means for readers.
- Rule origin: William Bengen, 1994
- Trinity Study findings
- How to calculate 4% of your portfolio
- Example: $500K portfolio → $20K/year → $1,667/month
💡 Quick example: If you have $500,000 saved, the 4% rule says you can withdraw $20,000 per year (or about $1,667/month) and have a very high probability of your money lasting 30+ years. Try your own numbers in our calculator →
How Was the 4% Rule Derived?
📝 Section Placeholder: How Was It Derived?
Dive deeper into the research methodology: historical data used, stock/bond allocations tested (typically 50/50 or 60/40), success rate percentages, and what "success" means in the context of the study.
- Historical data: 1926–1994 stock/bond returns
- Success rate at 4% over 30 years
- Portfolio mix assumptions (60% stocks / 40% bonds)
- What "success" means (portfolio > $0 at year 30)
Does the 4% Rule Still Work in 2025?
📝 Section Placeholder: Does It Still Work?
This is the most important section. Analyze whether the 4% rule is still valid given: current interest rates, inflation levels, increased life expectancy, lower expected stock returns, and sequence-of-returns risk. Present both sides — those who say it's still valid and those who recommend lower rates (3% or 3.5%).
- Arguments FOR: long-term historical data still supports it
- Arguments AGAINST: lower bond yields, higher starting valuations (CAPE ratio)
- Morningstar's updated safe withdrawal rate research
- Impact of retiring in a down market (sequence risk)
Limitations of the 4% Rule
📝 Section Placeholder: Limitations
Cover the scenarios where the 4% rule breaks down: early retirement (40-50 year horizons), poor market timing at retirement start, inflation spikes, unusual portfolio allocations, and not accounting for taxes or Social Security.
🔢 Run your own scenario: The 4% rule is a starting point, not a guarantee. Use our How Long Will My Money Last calculator to see exactly how long your specific savings will last with your actual withdrawal amount — including inflation and investment returns.
Alternatives to the 4% Rule
📝 Section Placeholder: Alternatives
Present practical alternatives: the 3.3% rule (Morningstar's updated recommendation), dynamic withdrawal strategies (spend less in down markets), bucket strategies, and floor-and-upside approaches. Include a simple comparison table.
- 3% rule: more conservative, for longer retirements
- Dynamic spending: adjusting withdrawals based on portfolio performance
- Guardrails strategy: upper/lower spending bounds
- Bucket strategy: segmenting money by time horizon
Real-World Examples
📝 Section Placeholder: Real-World Examples
Walk through 3–4 concrete scenarios with different portfolio sizes, ages, and withdrawal rates. For each, link to the calculator so readers can model their own situation.
- Example 1: $300K at 65, $2,000/month withdrawal
- Example 2: $750K at 55, $3,500/month withdrawal
- Example 3: $1.2M at 60, $5,000/month withdrawal
- For each: run through the calculator and share result
✅ Your turn: Every financial situation is unique. Don't just trust the 4% rule blindly. Use our free calculator to model your specific numbers — it takes less than 60 seconds and shows you a visual year-by-year chart.
The Bottom Line
📝 Section Placeholder: Conclusion
Summarize your findings and give readers a clear, actionable takeaway. Should they use the 4% rule? What modifications should they consider? End with a strong call-to-action to use the calculator.
Suggested ending: Reframe the rule as a starting point for a conversation, not a rigid mandate. Encourage readers to model their own situation.
MoneyLasts Editorial Team
We write practical, jargon-free guides on personal finance, retirement planning, and making your money last longer. All content is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.